107.9FM NYJ/LA

Translate This Page

Oil prices could see 'super spike well above $100' if conflict escalates after Iran's attack on Israel

Posted by Lee Ying Shan on Monday, April 15, 2024 Under: Technical Analysis

IN THIS ARTICLE

A refinery from the north of the Persian Gulf in Iran. 
  • Oil prices could soar to $100 per barrel and beyond, said market watchers, after Iran mounted an aerial attack against Israel reigniting fears of a regional war.
  • Iran is home to vast oil resources, and any disruption to its capacity to supply global markets could push prices higher.
  • While Biden reiterated U.S. commitment to Israel's security, he told Netanyahu that Washington would not participate in offensive operations against Iran, a senior administration official told NBC News.




Oil prices could soar to $100 per barrel and beyond, said market watchers, after Iran mounted an aerial attack against Israel reigniting fears of a regional war.

Iran is home to vast oil resources and is the third-largest producer in oil cartel OPEC. Any disruption in its capacity to supply global markets could send oil prices higher, analysts told CNBC. Markets will also closely monitor for developments or closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint which sits between Iran and Oman and through which one-fifth of global oil production flows daily.

"Any attack on oil production or export facilities in Iran would drive the price of Brent crude oil to $100, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to prices in the $120 to $130 range," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

Iran fired over 300 drones and missiles on Israel on Saturday night, marking the first instance Iran launched a direct military attack on the Jewish state. A "vast majority" of the Iranian drones and missiles were intercepted, according to Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari. He said a 10-year-old girl was "severely injured by shrapnel," but that there were no other casualties.

Iran's attack was in retaliation to an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, Syria earlier this month. Iran accused Israel of bombing part of its embassy compound on April 1, killing seven Iranian military personnel, including three senior commanders.

Iran's United Nations mission declared that following the aerial attack, the "matter can be deemed concluded." It warned, however, that its response would be "considerably more severe" should there be further Israeli retaliation.

Compounded by underinvestment

Oil prices traded slightly lower in early morning trading in Asia. Global benchmark Brent slipped 0.31% to $90.17 a barrel Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.44% to trade at $85.28 per barrel.

Compounded by years of underinvestment in oil exploration and development, the recent geopolitical development renders global crude supplies more vulnerable, said Josh Young, portfolio manager at oil and gas investment firm Bison Interests.

"Insufficient investment makes supply more fragile and increases the chance of a super spike well above $100 if supply is disrupted," he said.

"I think oil prices will go to all time highs this cycle, due to a decade of under-investment in exploration and development," Young added.

Oil faces a sizable natural decline in output. The decline rate for a conventional oil well is around 15%, absent any capital expenditure, according to Morgan Stanley's estimates.

Oil prices have climbed in recent months on trade disruptions and delays caused by Red Sea maritime attacks from the Houthis, who claim solidarity with the Palestinian people.

Ramping up sanctions against Iran?

A dominant force in Middle East politics, Iran funds and supports groups opposing Israel, such as Palestinian militant group Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis and Bashar al-Assad's Syrian administration. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has often been referred to as a proxy war between Israel and Iran

U.S. President Joe Biden condemned Iran's attack on Israel, adding that Washington helped "take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles."  

"Our commitment to Israel's security against threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad," Biden also said separately on social media platform X. But he also told Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in offensive operations against Iran, a senior administration official told NBC News.

If Iran further escalated hostilities, the U.S. and its allies would come under "renewed pressure to strengthen sanctions once again," Betashares' chief economist, David Bassanese, wrote in a note following the attack.

Iranian oil exports have lifted over the past few years with the U.S. "seemingly passively accepting this as a means to keep downward pressure on world oil prices," he added.

In : Technical Analysis 


Tags: oil prices   could see 'super spike   well above $100  if conflict escalates after  iran's   attack  israel  gaza  oil prices 

Panerai Luminor "Blackseal" PAM76 Titanium Black & Silver dial 44mm Automatic wa

PANERAI WATCH
LUMINOR / Ref. PAM76
44mm, Titanium
W525050
Panerai Luminor "Blackseal" PAM76 Titanium Black & Silver dial 44mm Automatic watch
TRY IT ON
G&S Price: $22,000

SALE PRICE

$16,900 


    HOT 103.1 FM HOUSTON

    Fashion director finds. Everything our fashion office is obsessed with right now.

    Shop Janelles's finds


     
     
    E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley 
    View in browser   |   Log on
     
     
     
    Make the most of your cash in 2025
     
    Boost your earning power with a high-yield savings and bank certificate of deposit (CD) account.
    BANKING
     
    You’re already building your portfolio with E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. Now, unlock more of your financial potential and open a high-yield bank account from Morgan Stanley Private Bank, Member FDIC, on etrade.com.
    Bank smarter with some of today’s best rates
    Bank CD accounts
    Bank CD accounts
     
    Plus, even more reasons to bank with us
    Award Icon
    Award-winning banking*
    Our accolades speak for themselves
     
     
    Check Icon
    Easy money management
    With E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley’s best-in-class digital experience6
     
     
     
    Lock Icon
    FDIC
    protected

    Up to applicable limits. Certain conditions must be satisfied.7
     
     
     
    Learn how to manage cash strategically
    Not sure which account is right for you? Learn how to use cash as an asset class to balance your short-tern needs with your long-term goals. Read article
     
     
    Facebook twitter Youtube
    Privacy Pledge  |  Security Center  |  FAQs
     
     
     
     
    *February 3, 2025. Buy Side from Wall Street Journal. Reprinted with permission by Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

    1. As of 2/21/2025, the Annual Percentage Yield (APY) of the Premium Savings Account offered by Morgan Stanley Private Bank, National Association is 4.00%. Your interest rate and APY may change at any time and fees may reduce earnings. Please visit etrade.com/ratesheet for information regarding this account's current interest rate and corresponding APY.

    2. Based on comparison to the National Deposits Savings Average Annual Percentage Yield (APY) as published on the FDIC Weekly National Rates and Rate Caps Weekly Update, as of January 21, 2025.

    3. Certificate of Deposit (CD) interest rates are fixed from the start of the term until their maturity date.

    CD offerings can change on a daily basis. The interest rate on the Settlement Date can be higher or lower than the interest rate that was available at the time of account opening. If your Settlement Date is within 10 calendar days of the account opening, the applied interest rate will be the highest of the prevailing interest rate on the date of account opening or the date of Settlement. Maturity is determined based on the Settlement Date and the term selected. The APY is based on no withdrawal of credited interest and no redemption prior to the stated maturity date. A withdrawal will reduce earnings. See the CD Rate Table page at etrade.com for information on term lengths, current interest rates and corresponding APYs.

    Interest is compounded daily. Interest will compound from the Settlement Date until the last full day before the date of withdrawal using the daily balance method. Accrued interest posts to your account on a quarterly basis, unless you select at account opening to receive interest via check.

    4. As of 2/21/2025, the Annual Percentage Yield (APY) of the Certificates of Deposit is up to 4.25%. Your interest rate and APY may change at any time until funding is settled, and penalties may reduce earnings. The APY is based on no withdrawal of credited interest and no redemption prior to the stated maturity date. Please visit etrade.com/ratesheet for information regarding the current interest rate, corresponding APY, and account terms.

    5. Bank CD accounts must be opened and funded to lock in a fixed rate.

    6. For the StockBrokers.com 2024 Annual Awards, all 17 U.S. equity brokers reviewed were assessed on over 200 different variables across eight areas: Commissions & Fees, Investment Options, Platforms & Tools, Research, Mobile Trading, Education, Ease of Use, and Overall. E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley was awarded the #1 Investor App, and #1 Web Trading Platform. In addition, E*TRADE received fifteen Best in Class distinctions: Overall Rating, Commissions & Fees, Research, Platforms & Tools, Investment Options, Mobile Trading Apps, Education, Bank Brokerage, Beginners, Futures Trading, IRA Accounts, Options Trading, Penny Stock Trading, High net Worth Investors, and Ease of Use. E*TRADE's star ratings for all category rankings out of 5: Overall (5.0 stars), Customer Service (4.0 stars), Commissions & Fees (4.5 stars), Research (5.0 stars), Platforms & Tools (4.5 stars), Mobile Trading Apps (5.0 stars), Investment Options (4.5 stars), Education (5.0 stars), Ease of Use (5.0 stars), Customer Service (4.0). Read the 2024 Online Broker Review.

    7. The Premium Savings Account gives Morgan Stanley Private Bank, National Association, Member FDIC the ability to send any amount held on deposit in your Premium Savings Account to other depository accounts at Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) member banks with the purpose of affording you additional FDIC insurance coverage. The Program is designed to offer up to $500,000 in FDIC coverage to individual accounts (up to $1 million for joint accounts). Certain conditions must be met. Learn more.

    Deposits held in Certificate of Deposit accounts are FDIC insured up to $250,000. Learn more.

    No minimum initial deposit is required to open a Premium Savings Account and Certificate of Deposit Account. However, account must be funded within 30 days to remain open.

    This is a promotional email from Morgan Stanley Private Bank, National Association. Click here to unsubscribe.

    Morgan Stanley Private Bank, P.O. Box 484, Jersey City, NJ 07303-0484

    Please see our Privacy Pledge for details about how Morgan Stanley handles personal information.

    Banking products and services are provided by Morgan Stanley Private Bank, National Association, Member FDIC.

    © 2025 E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. All rights reserved. E*TRADE Copyright Policy







    Invest, spend, and earn 2.05% APY*–all through your brokerage account.
    Our goal at Robinhood is to democratize finance. This means delivering products that help you do more with your money and improve your life. Today, we're excited to introduce Cash Management, a new feature to give you more flexibility with your brokerage account.
    JOIN THE WAITLIST
    Flexible Spending
    Use your Robinhood debit card anywhere Mastercard® is accepted around the world.
     
    Earn 2.05% APY
    Your uninvested cash is moved to banks in our program that pay you 2.05% APY*. Like all variable rates, this could go up or down over time.
     
    FDIC Insurance
    Your cash in the program banks is eligible for up to $1.25 million of FDIC insurance, or up to $250,000 per bank, subject to FDIC rules.
     
    75,000+ ATMs
    Don't pay fees at any of the 75,000+ ATMs in our network.
    JOIN THE WAITLIST


    See the source image



    For the next two weeks, you can earn increasing levels of Stock-Back™ rewards when you shift your everyday spending to your Stash debit card.* 

    Every qualifying swipe over $5 gets you closer to leveling up your Stock-Back rewards. Levels start tomorrow and reset to zero on Monday, November 18.

    Follow Us

     

    Flag Counter


    Flag Counter

    Make a free website with Yola